As arbovirus outbreaks continue to surge globally, a new study sheds light on the overlapping environmental risks for dengue, Zika, chikungunya, and yellow fever—all transmitted primarily by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes. Among the contributing authors is Moritz Kramer, a researcher at the University of Oxford and a key member of the E4Warning project. The study is a result of international collaboration between leading institutions, including Oxford, the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, the University of Melbourne, the Boston Children’s Hospital, University of Washington University of Cambridge, Nagasaki University, niversity of Florida, the World Health Organization, and the Harvard Medical School.

 In this large-scale study, researchers compiled over 21,000 occurrence records and developed the most comprehensive global environmental suitability maps to date, using a joint ecological niche modelling approach. What makes this work stand out is its integration of multiple diseases, correcting for long-standing biases in surveillance data, and providing a common suitability framework for all four diseases.

 Key findings include:

• An estimated 5.66 billion people live in areas suitable for dengue, Zika, and chikungunya—around 73% of the global population.

• 1.54 billion people live in areas suitable for yellow fever transmission.

• The study reveals high overlap in suitable areas for dengue, Zika, and chikungunya, indicating that any region reporting one of these diseases could be at risk of the others.

• Risk maps show new potential hotspots in areas like West and Central Africa, southern Europe, and parts of Asia, where surveillance is low or diseases are underreported.

• Models highlight that underreporting and limited diagnostic capacity in low-income countries may skew perceived disease distribution, underlining the importance of adjusting for surveillance capability in global risk mapping.

By using a two-stage modelling strategy—one for disease risk and one for surveillance capacity—the researchers produce more accurate and actionable risk assessments, offering a better foundation for targeted disease surveillance, early warning, and response systems.  The results emphasize the need for integrated arbovirus monitoring and the value of cross-disease models in a world of expanding ecological and climate pressures.

Read the full open access here: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-58609-5

Lim, A., Shearer, F. M., Sewalk, K., Pigott, D. M., Clarke, J., Ghouse, A., Judge, C., Kang, H., Messina, J. P., Kraemer, M. U. G., Gaythorpe, K. A. M., de Souza, W. M., Nsoesie, E. O., Celone, M., Faria, N., Ryan, S. J., Rabe, I. B., Rojas, D. P., Hay, S. I., Brownstein, J. S., Golding, N., & Brady, O. J. 2025. The overlapping global distribution of dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever. Nature Communications, 16, 3418. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-58609-5

And in the E4Warning Zenodo repository: https://zenodo.org/records/15223772

In a recent study conducted in Brazil by researchers from the Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, the E4Warning project successfully deployed smart traps with the VECTRACK sensor developed by IRIDEON, to improve mosquito surveillance in urban settings. These smart traps, equipped with AI and IoT technologies, have been tested in two Brazilian cities—Rio de Janeiro and Brasilia—where they demonstrated high accuracy in identifying mosquito species such as Aedes aegypti and Culex quinquefasciatus, both key vectors for diseases like dengue, Zika, and chikungunya.

Over a year of field testing, the traps showed a remarkable 99.8% accuracy in distinguishing target mosquito species from other insects and a 93.7% accuracy in differentiating between the two genera of mosquitoes. The smart traps collected data on 9,151 insect flights, of which 1,383 were mosquito vectors.

These findings indicate the potential of the E4Warning tool to provide real-time monitoring and classification of mosquitoes in areas with high vector-borne disease risks: by the end of September 2024, over 9.5 million dengue cases had been reported in Brazil. In this context, the data gathered from the smart traps could be instrumental in aiding public health authorities to make timely interventions, such as targeted vector control measures, enhancing the preparedness and response to mosquito-borne disease outbreaks.  The successful implementation of the IRIDEON smart traps in Brazil showcases how cutting-edge technologies can revolutionize mosquito surveillance, making it faster, more accurate, and less reliant on manual labor.

The paper has been published in the Parasite & Vector journal: Njaime, F.C.B.F.P., Máspero, R.C., Leandro, A.d., Maciel-de-Freitas, R. Automated classification of mixed populations of Aedes aegypti and Culex quinquefasciatus mosquitoes under field conditions. Parasites Vectors 17, 399 (2024).

It can be consulted at the following link: https://parasitesandvectors.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13071-024-06417-z

It can also be founded in the E4Warning Zenodo community: https://zenodo.org/records/13868673