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E4Warning is an holistic approach to improve our understanding of the interplay between humans, mosquitoes, reservoir species and the environment for a better disease intelligence capable of anticipating and identifying mosquito-borne diseases epidemic risk and outbreaks.

Mosquito-borne diseases, such as dengue, Zika, chikungunya and West Nile fever, are emerging and re-emerging worldwide because of climate change and globalisation. Every year, an estimated 390 million dengue infections occur around the world, resulting in up to 36,000 deaths. The burden of these diseases is highest in tropical and subtropical areas, but increasing numbers of autochthonous case are being reported from European countries since 2010, raising concerns about the potential for the establishment of these pathogens in temperate regions.

To address the complexity of Mosquito-borne diseases (MBDs), the E4Warning consortium is made up of an interdisciplinary and innovative team from 12 organisations from Spain, Germany, Greece, Belgium, Switzerland and the United Kingdom, with experience in entomology, movement ecology, epidemiology, Earth Observation science, sensor engineering, sociodemography and spatial statistic modelling.

Vectors ecology & surveillance

High quality real-time information on vectors for a scalable and flexible “epidemic intelligence”

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Ecosystem barriers to disease spreading

Host and vector dispersal capacities. Movement patterns in complex mosaic landscapes.

Earth Observation data

Estimate and anticipate mosquito prevalence and disease risk.

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Disease forecasting

Dengue forecasting in South Asia and endemic hotspots.

Human mobility

How human activity produce differential disease exposure and contribute to the spreading of invasive mosquitoes and diseases.

Dengue importation risk

Dengue prevalence in endemic areas and global traffic patterns will anticipate connectivity and importation risk.

Work Packages

WP1 – Coordination and management

To ensure the scientific coordination and implementation of the whole project life cycle and work plan according to the grant rules and consortium agreements.

WP2 – Citizen-Science Mosquito Surveillance

Exploit and scale up the expert-validated citizen-science vector surveillance and early warning system at the heart of EIC-finalist FARSEER.

WP3 – Networked smart mosquito traps

Improve the method and software for the automatic detection and classification of mosquitoes; and manufacture prototype subsystem units to be used in field tests in real operational environment with end-users.

WP4 – Earth Observation, hydroclimate, vector suitability maps

Provide a covariate data suite that covers the needs of the different modelling efforts; Model water availability based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity Macroscale Hydrologic Model; Model vector suitability based on traditional data sources; Model vector seasonality and activity based on different modelling pathways.

WP5 – Vector, animal, and human movement ecology

Quantifying the movement patterns of potential reservoir species as well as vectors along a gradient of human population density from urban to natural areas to assess ecosystem barriers and their resilience in facing emerging diseases. It also aims at understanding the role of human mobility patterns as introducing negative and positive feedback to disease risk.

WP6 – Disease risk models in endemic settings

Combine novel data generated in WP2-5 with disease surveillance data to predict the risk of outbreaks and emergence of new transmission hotspots along fringe areas of endemic regions. Using Bayesian space-time prediction frameworks, we aim to model the complex relationship between climate, human behaviour and disease across different settings.

WP7 – Emerging risk models in Europe

WP 7 draws on insights from WPs 2-6 to address emerging risks of mosquito-borne disease in Europe. It takes an integrated one-health approach, connecting factors related to hosts, vectors, reservoirs, and the environment across multiple scales, including importation models linked to the endemic areas studied in WP6, and spreading models linked to insights on human, mosquito, and bird mobility drawn from WPs 4 and 5 to gain a deeper understanding of MBDs and to increase the effectiveness of interventions.

WP8 – Capacity building, policy & exploitation

Establishing strategic engagement with governmental and non-governmental stakeholders, policymakers, relevant institutions and academia, the commercial sector, and international funding bodies in research and public health.

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E4Warning – Eco-Epidemiological Intelligence for early Warning and response to mosquito-borne disease risk in Endemic
and Emergence settings. E4Warning has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon Europe programme ((HORIZON Research and Innovation Actions) under Grant Agreement 101086640